BTCUSD unable to break through key resistance level
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 15, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, BTCUSD ended Thursday at 11508.31 gaining $79.01 (0.69%). Trading up to $160.25 lower after the open, BTC managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Oct 15, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $338.54 (2.96%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $262.55. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BTCUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 11269.05 and 11607.59 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 11533.93 (R1), BTC/USD closed below it after spiking up to 11607.59 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. Bitcoin found buyers again today around 11269.05 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 11298.88 in the prior session and at 11314.56 two days ago. The last time this happened on October 8th, BTCUSD gained 1.18% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 11725.28 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 11223.99 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 414 times, BTCUSD closed higher 54.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.97% with an average market move of 6.98%.
With five out of the other six Major Cryptocurrencies closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are ETCUSD losing -1.58% and XRPUSD closing -1.28% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been BCHUSD closing 1.17% higher. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been LTCGBP surging 12.29% and WAVESUSD closing 7.57% higher. The worst performers of the day have been SCBTC tanking -7.41% and KMDBTC closing -4.15% lower. Read more