BTCUSD breaks below Wednesday's low
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCUSD finished Thursday at 9092.80 losing $146.09 (-1.58%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 9097.33, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $142.66 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $313.17 (3.39%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $264.22. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BTCUSD.
Regardless of a strong opening BTC closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 11th, BTCUSD actually gained 2.12% on the following trading day.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 9234.33 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move above 9299.67 in the prior session, Bitcoin ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 9267.84.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 9299.67 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 8867.34 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 333 times, BTCUSD closed higher 54.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.66% with an average market move of 3.56%.
With six out of the other six Major Cryptocurrencies closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are ETHUSD losing -1.97% and BCHUSD closing -1.83% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been ICXBTC surging 8.02% and STRATUSD closing 7.14% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BTGBTC tanking -10.71% and BTGUSD closing -9.62% lower. Read more