BTCUSD stuck within tight trading range
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCUSD finished the month -3.32% lower at 9136.47 after losing $50.60 (-0.55%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $132.22 (1.44%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $297.80. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BTCUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 8946.05 and 9234.33 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 9234.33 (R1). After having been unable to move above 9234.33 in the previous session, Bitcoin ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 9200.99. The last time this happened on June 28th, BTCUSD actually gained 0.73% on the following trading day.
While BTC/USD is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 9234.33 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 8867.34 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 1,383 times, BTCUSD closed higher 50.61% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.25% with an average market move of 3.48%.
With six out of the other six Major Cryptocurrencies closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are ETCUSD losing -1.72% and LTCUSD closing -1.65% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been XVGBTC surging 5.63% and XVGUSD closing 5.06% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BCNUSD tanking -4.29% and LTCCNY closing -3.72% lower. Read more