BTCUSD breaks below key technical support level
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCUSD finished Saturday at 10217.28 losing $118.34 (-1.14%) on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Aug 17, 2019):
Saturday's trading range has been $463.88 (4.48%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $602.77. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BTCUSD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 10335.34 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on Wednesday, BTCUSD actually gained 2.72% on the following trading day. BTC ran into sellers again today around 10474.64 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 10544.97 in the previous session and at 10451.61 two days ago.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 10544.97 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test July's nearby low at 9086.51.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 295 times, BTCUSD closed higher 53.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.97% with an average market move of 3.93%.
With four out of the other six Major Cryptocurrencies closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are LTCUSD losing -2.8% and ETCUSD closing -1.26% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been XRPUSD closing 1.76% higher and ETHUSD gaining 0.05%. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been HSRBTC surging 40.66% and QTUMBTC closing 8.6% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BTGUSD tanking -2.75% and LTCGBP closing -2.71% lower. Read more