BTCUSD stuck within tight trading range
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, BTCUSD ended Thursday at 3880.75 losing $1.66 (-0.04%). Trading up to $53.41 lower after the open, Bitcoin managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $97.18 (2.51%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $117.59. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BTCUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 3825.03 and 3922.21 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on February 10th, BTCUSD actually lost -1.91% on the following trading day. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man which are known as neutral patterns.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 3909.86 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 3922.21 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 3975.25 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Rickshaw-Man" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 34 times, BTCUSD closed higher 58.82% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.59% with an average market move of 13.54%.
With three of the other Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are BCHUSD surging 2.86% and ETCUSD gaining 1.64%. On the flipside the worst performers have been XRPUSD closing -1.11% lower and EOSUSD losing -0.82%. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been QTUMBTC surging 27.97% and QTUMUSD closing 26.39% higher. The worst performers of the day have been KMDUSD tanking -8.26% and KMDBTC closing -7.09% lower. Read more