BTCUSD breaks below Wednesday's low
Bitcoin/US Dollar Index (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 10, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCUSD finished Thursday at 3672.21 tanking $376.99 (-9.31%) on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on November 20, 2018, BTCUSD actually gained 4.87% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 4013.00, the cryptocurrency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $381.93 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCUSD as at Jan 10, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $454.02 (11.21%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $213.39. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BTCUSD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 3545.37 (S1). The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 3828.22. After having been unable to move above 4092.91 in the previous session, BTC/USD ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 4085.09.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Strong Down Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/USD. Out of 207 times, BTCUSD closed higher 56.52% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.87% with an average market move of 9.69%.
With six out of the other six Major Cryptocurrencies closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are EOSUSD losing -17.23% and BCHUSD closing -16.5% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Looking at the Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been XVGBTC surging 18.44% and XVGUSD closing 9.93% higher. The worst performers of the day have been STRATUSD tanking -19.3% and ADAUSD closing -16.31% lower. Read more