BTCCNY closes within prior day's range
Bitcoin/Chinese Yuan Index (BTCCNY) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 21, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCCNY finished Saturday at 121830.89 edging lower CN¥869.10 (-0.71%). Trading CN¥18519.47 higher after the open, BTC was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on November 15th, BTCCNY actually gained 10.48% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCCNY as at Nov 21, 2020):
Saturday's trading range has been CN¥37205.73 (30.32%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of CN¥36521.98. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for BTCCNY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 98719.51 and 141219.46 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Five candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Gravestone Doji and the Northern Doji which are both known as bearish patterns and three neutral patterns, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man.
After trading down to 104013.73 earlier during the day, BTC/CNY bounced off the key technical support level at 120927.47 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. Bitcoin found buyers again today around 104013.73 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 98719.51 in the prior session and at 100000.00 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 98719.51 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to November's low at 84248.09, downside momentum could speed up should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/CNY. Out of 611 times, BTCCNY closed higher 59.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.96% with an average market move of 2.95%.