BTCCNY finds buyers around 60084.13 for the forth day in a row
Bitcoin/Chinese Yuan Index (BTCCNY) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, BTCCNY finished Saturday at 62200.00 losing CN¥700.00 (-1.11%) on low volume. Today's close at 62200.00 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 25th. Trading CN¥9709.47 higher after the open, Bitcoin was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCCNY as at Nov 09, 2019):
Saturday's trading range has been CN¥12526.81 (19.91%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of CN¥22266.43. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BTCCNY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 59076.43 and 72610.94 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern and the Bearish Spinning Top which are both known as bearish patterns.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 65214.98 (R1), the cryptocurrency closed below it after spiking up to 72610.94 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on November 2nd, BTCCNY actually gained 4.34% on the following trading day. The market was bought again around 60084.13 after having seen lows at 59240.44, 59076.43 and 59095.49 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 59076.43 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 21809.82, downside momentum could speed up should BTC break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test October's close-by low at 51359.59.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/CNY. Out of 413 times, BTCCNY closed higher 57.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.56% with an average market move of 3.69%.
With five out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are LTCUSD gaining 2.57% and BCHUSD closing 1.29% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been ETCUSD closing -0.8% lower and BTCUSD losing -0.16%. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been KMDBTC surging 19.83% and KMDUSD closing 19.72% higher. The worst performers of the day have been SCBTC tanking -4.35% and PIVXBTC closing -4.06% lower. Read more