BTCCNY tumbles, losing CN¥7228.48 (-9.13%) within a single day on low volume
Bitcoin/Chinese Yuan Index (BTCCNY) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 18, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BTCCNY finished Sunday at 71901.09 tanking CN¥7228.48 (-9.13%) on low volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over four weeks. Today's close at 71901.09 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 31st. Trading CN¥12939.32 higher after the open, BTC/CNY was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BTCCNY as at Aug 18, 2019):
Sunday's trading range has been CN¥22791.88 (28.8%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of CN¥34703.53. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BTCCNY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 67052.42 and 114671.01 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on Thursday, BTCCNY actually gained 6.03% on the following trading day. Despite a strong opening Bitcoin closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle.
After trading as low as 69277.01 during the day, BTC found support at the 100-day moving average at 70017.81. The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 77486.37. The cryptocurrency was bought again around 69277.01 after having seen lows at 70663.04, 67464.96 and 67052.42 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 67052.42 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 21809.82, downside momentum could accelerate should BTCCNY break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test July's nearby low at 49918.13.
Among the 15 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for BTC/CNY. Out of 141 times, BTCCNY closed higher 60.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.16% with an average market move of 3.98%.
With seven out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are XRPUSD gaining 6.54% and LTCUSD closing 5.12% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been XMRUSD surging 7.26% and ADAUSD closing 6.96% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ETHCNY tanking -5.73% and LTCCNY closing -5.54% lower. Read more