WHEAT closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Wheat (WHEAT) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, WHEAT ended Thursday at 520.75 surging $16.25 (3.22%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 506.75, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $16.25 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (WHEAT as at Jul 11, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $22.75 (4.5%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $14.81. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for WHEAT.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The contract managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 504.76. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 525.75 (R1). WHEAT found buyers again today around 500.25 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 498.00 in the prior session and at 498.75 two days ago. The last time this happened on June 4th, WHEAT actually lost -2.65% on the following trading day.
Though the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
As prices are trading close to July's high at 531.00, upside momentum might accelerate should the contract mark new highs for the month.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near high of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Wheat. Out of 507 times, WHEAT closed lower 56.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.38% with an average market move of -0.64%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NATGAS losing -1.4% and GOLD closing -1.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been CORN closing 2.21% higher and COFFEE gaining 0.91%. Read more