TNOTE5Y closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
U.S. 5 Year T-Note (TNOTE5Y) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TNOTE5Y finished the week -0.07% lower at 125.633 after gaining $0.024 (0.02%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE5Y as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.156 (0.12%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.231. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TNOTE5Y.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern and the Shooting Star which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Shooting Star showed up on May 15th, TNOTE5Y lost -0.24% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 125.367 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 125.906, upside momentum could accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to May's low at 125.203, downside momentum might speed up should the contract mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Shooting Star" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 5Y T-Note. Out of 74 times, TNOTE5Y closed higher 62.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.76% with an average market move of 0.13%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.09% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more