TNOTE5Y closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
U.S. 5 Year T-Note (TNOTE5Y) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TNOTE5Y finished the week unchanged at 125.305 after edging lower $0.031 (-0.02%) today on low volume. Trading $0.204 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE5Y as at Apr 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.266 (0.21%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.789. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for TNOTE5Y.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji and the Shooting Star which are both known as bearish patterns and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
After trading down to 125.250 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 125.297 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward.5Y T-Note found buyers again today around 125.250 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 125.258 in the previous session and at 125.312 two days ago. The last time this happened on March 26th, TNOTE5Y gained 0.46% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 125.641 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 125.898, upside momentum might accelerate should TNOTE5Y be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Shooting Star" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 5Y T-Note. Out of 70 times, TNOTE5Y closed higher 62.86% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.71% with an average market move of 0.13%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and BUND closing 0.06% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been TNOTE2Y closing -0.01% lower. Read more