TNOTE5Y closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
U.S. 5 Year T-Note (TNOTE5Y) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE5Y ended Monday at 118.875 edging lower $0.008 (-0.01%) on low volume. Trading $0.039 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE5Y as at Jan 20, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $0.055 (0.05%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.251. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TNOTE5Y.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Shooting Star. The last time a Shooting Star showed up on November 22, 2019, TNOTE5Y actually gained 0.05% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 118.953 (R1). After having been unable to move above 118.930 in the previous session, 5Y T-Note ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 118.922.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 118.742 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 118.461, downside momentum could accelerate should TNOTE5Y break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Shooting Star" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 5Y T-Note. Out of 66 times, TNOTE5Y closed higher 60.61% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.06% with an average market move of 0.12%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TBOND losing -0.04% and BUND closing -0.03% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more