TNOTE5Y stuck within tight trading range
U.S. 5 Year T-Note (TNOTE5Y) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE5Y ended the week -0.14% lower at 114.516 after gaining $0.180 (0.16%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE5Y as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.297 (0.26%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.355. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for TNOTE5Y. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 114.211 and 114.648 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 114.648 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 114.320 in the previous session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 114.328. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TNOTE5Y actually lost -0.10% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 114.648 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 114.211 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for 5Y T-Note. Out of 782 times, TNOTE5Y closed higher 54.86% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.91% with an average market move of 0.09%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.52% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.26% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more