TNOTE2Y closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
U.S. 2-Year T-Note (TNOTE2Y) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE2Y finished the week -0.03% lower at 110.258 after gaining $0.008 (0.01%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE2Y as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.031 (0.03%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.057. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TNOTE2Y. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 110.227 and 110.281 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Doji showed up on May 15th, TNOTE2Y lost -0.06% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 110.234 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 110.250 in the prior session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 110.250.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 110.203 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to May's high at 110.367, upside momentum might accelerate should the market mark new highs for the month. As prices are trading close to May's low at 110.172, downside momentum could speed up should 2Y T-Note mark new lows for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Northern Doji" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 2Y T-Note. Out of 105 times, TNOTE2Y closed higher 53.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.38% with an average market move of 0.01%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.09% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more