TNOTE2Y runs into sellers around 110.234 for the forth day in a row
U.S. 2-Year T-Note (TNOTE2Y) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TNOTE2Y ended the week -0.01% lower at 110.180 after losing $0.008 (-0.01%) today on low volume. Trading $0.046 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE2Y as at Apr 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.086 (0.08%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.230. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for TNOTE2Y.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on February 6th, TNOTE2Y actually gained 0.07% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 110.219 (R1), the contract closed below it after spiking up to 110.234 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.2Y T-Note was sold again around 110.234 after having seen highs at 110.242, 110.234 and 110.234 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
Although TNOTE2Y is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 110.242 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 110.023 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous three Highs" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 2Y T-Note. Out of 45 times, TNOTE2Y closed higher 51.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.78% with an average market move of 0.04%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and BUND closing 0.06% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been TNOTE5Y closing -0.02% lower. Read more