TNOTE2Y closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
U.S. 2-Year T-Note (TNOTE2Y) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 27, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, TNOTE2Y ended the week -0.01% lower at 110.188 after gaining $0.047 (0.04%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE2Y as at Mar 27, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.078 (0.07%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.300. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for TNOTE2Y. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 110.023 and 110.312 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
After having been unable to move lower than 110.109 in the prior session, 2Y T-Note found buyers again around the same price level today at 110.125. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TNOTE2Y gained 0.02% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 110.219 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 110.023 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 110.594, upside momentum could speed up should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for 2Y T-Note. Out of 117 times, TNOTE2Y closed higher 48.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.85% with an average market move of 0.03%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 1.78% and BUND closing 1.05% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more