TNOTE2Y fails to close above 100-day moving average
U.S. 2-Year T-Note (TNOTE2Y) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE2Y finished Thursday at 107.844 gaining $0.039 (0.04%). Today's close at 107.844 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 3, 2019. Closing above Wednesday's high at 107.828, 2Y T-Note confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.063 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE2Y as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.079 (0.07%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.079. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TNOTE2Y.
The contract managed to close above the 200-day moving average at 107.819 for the first time since January 7th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on January 3rd, TNOTE2Y actually lost -0.02% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 107.891 during the day, the market found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 107.855.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 107.992, upside momentum might accelerate should TNOTE2Y be able to break out to new highs for the year. With prices trading close to this year's low at 107.672, downside momentum could speed up should 2Y T-Note break out to new lows for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 2Y T-Note. Out of 28 times, TNOTE2Y closed higher 60.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.29% with an average market move of 0.02%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.51% and BUND closing 0.31% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more