TNOTE10Y finds buyers again around 139.047
U.S. 10-Year T-Note (TNOTE10Y) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE10Y ended the week -0.09% lower at 139.172 after gaining $0.125 (0.09%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE10Y as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.375 (0.27%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.480. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TNOTE10Y.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 139.359 (R1), the contract closed below it after spiking up to 139.422 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Monday, TNOTE10Y actually gained 0.24% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 138.984 in the previous session, 10Y T-Note found buyers again around the same price level today at 139.047.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 139.656 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 138.562 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test April's nearby high at 139.688. As prices are trading close to May's low at 138.266, downside momentum might speed up should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for 10Y T-Note. Out of 732 times, TNOTE10Y closed higher 57.24% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.87% with an average market move of 0.16%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and BUND closing 0.03% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more