TNOTE10Y closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
U.S. 10-Year T-Note (TNOTE10Y) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE10Y finished the week 0.25% higher at 139.062 after edging higher $0.015 (0.01%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE10Y as at Apr 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.453 (0.33%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.646. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for TNOTE10Y. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 138.344 and 139.453 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on March 19th, TNOTE10Y gained 1.71% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 139.219 (R1), 10Y T-Note closed below it after spiking up to 139.344 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. The contract found buyers again today around 138.891 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 138.781 in the prior session and at 138.781 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 139.453 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 138.344 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 140.750, upside momentum might accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for 10Y T-Note. Out of 144 times, TNOTE10Y closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.42% with an average market move of 0.32%.
With two of the other Bond Markets closing higher and two closing lower today, the winners of the day are TBOND surging 0.14% and BUND gaining 0.06%. On the flipside the worst performers have been TNOTE5Y closing -0.02% lower and TNOTE2Y losing -0.01%. Read more