TNOTE10Y runs into sellers again around 129.188
U.S. 10-Year T-Note (TNOTE10Y) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE10Y ended Monday at 129.125 edging lower $0.016 (-0.01%) on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE10Y as at Jan 20, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $0.079 (0.06%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.443. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TNOTE10Y.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one neutral candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Doji. The last time a Doji showed up on December 30, 2019, TNOTE10Y lost -0.26% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move above 129.219 in the prior session, 10Y T-Note ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 129.188.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 128.906 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 128.156, downside momentum might speed up should the contract break out to new lows for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for 10Y T-Note. Out of 721 times, TNOTE10Y closed higher 56.87% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.31% with an average market move of 0.17%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TBOND losing -0.04% and BUND closing -0.03% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more