TNOTE10Y finds buyers again around 121.609
U.S. 10-Year T-Note (TNOTE10Y) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TNOTE10Y ended the week -0.22% lower at 121.922 after gaining $0.313 (0.26%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TNOTE10Y as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.500 (0.41%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.552. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for TNOTE10Y. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 121.500 and 122.109 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on January 3rd, TNOTE10Y actually lost -0.79% on the following trading day.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 121.641 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 121.578 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 121.609.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 121.500 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for 10Y T-Note. Out of 694 times, TNOTE10Y closed higher 55.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.04% with an average market move of 0.16%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.52% and BUND closing 0.17% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more