TBOND closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended the week 1.18% higher at 174.156 after gaining $0.250 (0.14%) today. Trading up to $0.437 lower after the open, the contract managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on November 11th, TBOND gained 1.04% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Nov 20, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.812 (0.47%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.684. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TBOND.
After trading down to 173.469 earlier during the day, 30-year Bond bounced off the key technical support level at 173.500 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. After spiking up to 174.281 during the day, the market found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 174.266.
Although T-Bond is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
As prices are trading close to November's high at 175.844, upside momentum might accelerate should the Bond mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for T-Bond. Out of 446 times, TBOND closed higher 54.04% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.17% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are BUND gaining 0.23% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.02% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more