TBOND finds buyers at key support level
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended the week -0.21% lower at 178.625 after edging higher $0.156 (0.09%) today on low volume. Closing above Thursday's high at 178.562, T-Bond confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.313 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.500 (0.28%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.419. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
After trading down to 178.375 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 178.406 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on Tuesday, TBOND actually lost -0.11% on the following trading day.
The Bond shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 179.531 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 177.281 where further sell stops could get activated. Trading close to May's high at 180.875 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for T-Bond. Out of 445 times, TBOND closed higher 53.93% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.85% with an average market move of 0.23%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are BUND gaining 0.02% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.01% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more