TBOND runs into sellers around 182.969 for the third day in a row
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished the week 0.88% higher at 182.219 after gaining $0.250 (0.14%) today on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Apr 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.531 (0.84%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.302. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for TBOND. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 178.844 and 182.969 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
The Bond ran into sellers again today around 182.969 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 182.812 in the prior session and at 182.781 two days ago. The last time this happened on March 26th, TBOND actually gained 1.78% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 178.844 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 656 times, TBOND closed higher 54.73% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.86% with an average market move of 0.41%.
With two of the other Bond Markets closing higher and two closing lower today, the winners of the day are BUND surging 0.06% and TNOTE10Y gaining 0.01%. On the flipside the worst performers have been TNOTE5Y closing -0.02% lower and TNOTE2Y losing -0.01%. Read more