TBOND finds buyers again around 177.188
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 25, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended Wednesday at 177.375 edging lower $0.344 (-0.19%) on low volume. Trading $2.125 higher after the open, the Bond was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Mar 25, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.468 (1.39%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.791. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TBOND. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 174.875 and 181.250 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Shooting Star which are known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 174.500 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 181.250 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 176.625 in the previous session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 177.188. The last time this happened on March 19th, TBOND gained 3.43% on the following trading day.
Although T-Bond is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 181.250 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 567 times, TBOND closed higher 56.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.73% with an average market move of 0.44%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are BUND losing -0.46% and TNOTE10Y closing -0.07% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been TNOTE2Y closing 0.04% higher. Read more