TBOND pushes through key technical resistance level
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended the week unchanged at 162.469 after gaining $0.657 (0.41%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.000 (0.62%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.298. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TBOND. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 161.469 and 163.281 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 162.125 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 162.812 in the previous session, 30-year Bond ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 162.812. The last time this happened on February 4th, TBOND lost -0.67% on the following trading day.
Though the Bond is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 163.281 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 161.469 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 164.156, upside momentum could accelerate should T-Bond be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 709 times, TBOND closed higher 56.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.43% with an average market move of 0.29%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TNOTE10Y gaining 0.19% and TNOTE5Y closing 0.11% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more