TBOND finds buyers again around 161.625
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished Thursday at 161.812 edging higher $0.187 (0.12%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Feb 13, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.187 (0.73%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.302. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TBOND.
After moving lower in the previous session, the contract managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on February 6th, TBOND gained 0.68% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 162.125 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 162.812 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 161.469 in the previous session, T-Bond found buyers again around the same price level today at 161.625.
30-year Bond shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 161.469 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 164.156, upside momentum could accelerate should the Bond be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 566 times, TBOND closed higher 56.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.13% with an average market move of 0.40%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are BUND gaining 0.13% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.07% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more