TBOND closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, TBOND ended Monday at 157.438 edging lower $0.062 (-0.04%) on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jan 20, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $0.281 (0.18%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.137. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on December 19, 2019, TBOND actually gained 0.10% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 157.156 (S1).
T-Bond shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 156.875 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 159.594, upside momentum might accelerate should the contract be able to break out to new highs for the year. With prices trading close to this year's low at 155.156, downside momentum could speed up should the Bond break out to new lows for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 714 times, TBOND closed higher 56.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.32% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are BUND losing -0.03% and TNOTE10Y closing -0.01% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more