TBOND breaks below Thursday's low
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 17, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended the week -0.12% lower at 157.500 after losing $0.594 (-0.38%) today on high volume. Closing below Thursday's low at 157.875, T-Bond confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.000 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jan 17, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.063 (0.67%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.175. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
After trading as low as 156.875 during the day, the market found support at the 20-day moving average at 157.019. The last time this happened on October 10, 2019, TBOND actually lost -0.85% on the following trading day. The contract closed back below the 50-day moving average at 157.554.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 158.781 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 155.156, downside momentum might accelerate should the Bond break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for T-Bond. Out of 64 times, TBOND closed higher 54.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.25% with an average market move of 0.60%.
With two out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TNOTE5Y gaining 0.02% and TNOTE2Y closing 0.01% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been BUND closing -0.01% lower. Read more