TBOND finds buyers again around 157.875
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished Thursday at 158.094 losing $0.500 (-0.32%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jan 16, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.906 (0.57%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.195. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
After moving higher in the previous session, 30-year Bond closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on Monday, TBOND actually gained 0.48% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 158.531 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 157.844 in the previous session, T-Bond found buyers again around the same price level today at 157.875.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 156.952.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 111 times, TBOND closed higher 60.36% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.66% with an average market move of 0.33%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TNOTE10Y losing -0.18% and TNOTE5Y closing -0.11% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been BUND closing 0.05% higher. Read more