TBOND finds buyers again around 156.031
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND ended the week -2.99% lower at 156.188 after losing $0.531 (-0.34%) today. Today's close at 156.188 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 31st. Trading $0.563 higher after the open, the Bond was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Nov 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.188 (0.76%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.403. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
After having been unable to move lower than 155.812 in the prior session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 156.031. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TBOND actually lost -1.22% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 159.459.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 155.812 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 568 times, TBOND closed higher 56.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.39% with an average market move of 0.36%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TNOTE10Y losing -0.15% and TNOTE5Y closing -0.07% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been BUND closing 0.02% higher. Read more