TBOND finds buyers again around 163.438
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished Wednesday at 163.562 losing $1.126 (-0.68%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Oct 09, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.312 (0.8%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.658. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
Regardless of a strong opening the market closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 163.312 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 163.562 in the prior session, 30-year Bond found buyers again around the same price level today at 163.438. The last time this happened on Monday, TBOND gained 0.25% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 166.719, upside momentum could accelerate should the Bond be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 565 times, TBOND closed higher 56.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.88% with an average market move of 0.38%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are BUND losing -0.32% and TNOTE10Y closing -0.32% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more