TBOND finds buyers again around 153.156
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished Tuesday at 153.969 losing $0.156 (-0.1%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jul 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.094 (0.71%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.119. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 152.875 and 154.250 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 153.094 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 154.688 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 153.062 in the prior session, T-Bond found buyers again around the same price level today at 153.156. The last time this happened on July 12th, TBOND gained 0.51% on the following trading day.
Though the contract is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's nearby low at 152.844.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 661 times, TBOND closed higher 55.22% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.19% with an average market move of 0.38%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TNOTE10Y losing -0.11% and TNOTE5Y closing -0.09% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been BUND closing 0.04% higher. Read more