TBOND finds support at 20-day moving average
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND finished Thursday at 145.531 losing $0.407 (-0.28%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 145.875, the contract confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.563 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.750 (0.51%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.881. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TBOND.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on October 16, 2018, TBOND actually lost -0.52% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 145.312 during the day, the Bond found support at the 20-day moving average at 145.420.
The market shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 145.094 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 706 times, TBOND closed higher 55.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.09% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With one of the other Bond Markets closing higher and one closing lower today, the winners of the day are BUND surging 0.02%. On the flipside the worst performer has been TNOTE10Y closing -0.01% lower. Read more