TBOND rises to highest close since January 3rd
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND finished the week 0.53% higher at 146.812 after gaining $0.437 (0.3%) today. Today's close at 146.812 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 3rd. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 146.562, 30-year Bond confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.407 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Feb 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.625 (0.43%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.866. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for TBOND.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 147.031 (R1).
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since January 31st, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices might head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 145.547 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices. The last time prices broke out above the upper Bollinger Band on January 31st, TBOND actually lost -0.51% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 147.031 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for T-Bond. Out of 147 times, TBOND closed lower 62.59% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 57.82% with an average market move of -0.08%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are BUND gaining 0.16% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.09% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more