TBOND breaks back above 20-day moving average
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TBOND finished the week -0.7% lower at 145.750 after gaining $0.750 (0.52%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.094 (0.75%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.264. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 144.938 and 146.312 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the previous session, T-Bond managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on January 3rd, TBOND actually lost -1.18% on the following trading day.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 145.259. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 146.094 (R1), the contract closed below it after spiking up to 146.094 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 144.938 in the previous session, 30-year Bond found buyers again around the same price level today at 145.000.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 146.312 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 144.938 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 704 times, TBOND closed higher 55.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.69% with an average market move of 0.23%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TNOTE10Y gaining 0.26% and BUND closing 0.17% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more