SUGAR fails to close above 20-day moving average
Sugar (SUGAR) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SUGAR finished Thursday at 12.38 losing $0.12 (-0.96%). Trading $0.12 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SUGAR as at Jul 11, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.26 (2.08%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.25. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for SUGAR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 12.26 and 12.65 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Regardless of a strong opening the market closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on May 30th, SUGAR actually gained 2.75% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 12.32 (S1). After spiking up to 12.62 during the day, SUGAR found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 12.58.
Though the contract is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 12.26 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 12.18.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Sugar. Out of 60 times, SUGAR closed lower 51.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.33% with an average market move of -0.91%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 3.17% and CORN closing 2.21% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been NATGAS closing -1.4% lower and GOLD losing -1.08%. Read more