NATGAS breaks below Thursday's low
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NATGAS ended the week 4.07% higher at 3.170 after losing $0.086 (-2.64%) today on low volume. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 3.254, Nat Gas confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.088 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 23, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.111 (3.4%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.172. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle.
Natural Gas closed back below the 200-day moving average at 3.173 for the first time since October 16th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 16th, NATGAS lost -8.27% on the following trading day.
The contract shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 34 times, NATGAS closed lower 50.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.59% with an average market move of -1.41%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are CRUDE losing -2.03% and COFFEE closing -1.1% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been WHEAT closing 2.07% higher and CORN gaining 1.01%. Read more