NATGAS pops to highest close since September 15th
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, NATGAS finished Tuesday at 3.258 gaining $0.068 (2.13%). Today's close at 3.258 marks the highest recorded closing price since September 15th. Closing above Monday's high at 3.248, the contract confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.060 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 20, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.126 (3.95%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.186. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Short Candle showed up on August 13th, NATGAS gained 4.72% on the following trading day.
Natural Gas managed to close above the 50-day moving average at 3.219 for the first time since September 24th. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 3.325 (R1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 3.313 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 322 times, NATGAS closed lower 57.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.32% with an average market move of -0.68%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are CORN gaining 1.04% and WHEAT closing 1.03% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been COFFEE closing -1.78% lower and SUGAR losing -1.29%. Read more