NATGAS runs into sellers again around 2.852
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS finished the week -2.71% lower at 2.688 after losing $0.093 (-3.34%) today. Trading $0.074 higher after the open, Nat Gas was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 16, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.182 (6.55%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.184. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
After moving higher in the prior session, Natural Gas closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
The contract closed back below the 100-day moving average at 2.698. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on Wednesday, NATGAS actually gained 4.98% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 2.829 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 2.852.
NATGAS shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2.610 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 16 times, NATGAS closed lower 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 68.75% with an average market move of -1.49%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are COFFEE losing -2.45% and SILVER closing -0.61% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been SUGAR closing 1.76% higher and WHEAT gaining 1.16%. Read more