NATGAS dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 15, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS finished Thursday at 2.781 gaining $0.132 (4.98%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 2.771, the contract confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.058 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 15, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.190 (7.18%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.182. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
Notwithstanding a weak opening Natural Gas managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Nat Gas managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 2.697. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on October 9th, NATGAS gained 2.61% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 2.810 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 2.829 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
NATGAS shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Up Move" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 332 times, NATGAS closed lower 58.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.73% with an average market move of -0.46%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 3.69% and CORN closing 1.81% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been CRUDE closing -0.46% lower and COFFEE losing -0.31%. Read more