NATGAS breaks back below 100-day moving average
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NATGAS ended Wednesday at 2.649 losing $0.115 (-4.16%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 2.751, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.141 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 14, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.161 (5.83%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.187. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2.537 (S1). The contract closed back below the 100-day moving average at 2.696 for the first time since October 8th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 29th, NATGAS actually gained 1.88% on the following trading day.
Although Nat Gas is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 59 times, NATGAS closed lower 57.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.10% with an average market move of -0.98%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are CRUDE gaining 2.29% and SUGAR closing 1.36% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been COFFEE closing -0.04% lower. Read more