NATGAS breaks below Monday's low
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS finished Tuesday at 2.764 losing $0.071 (-2.5%). Trading $0.050 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 2.825, Natural Gas confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.074 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 13, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.133 (4.69%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.187. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 2.810 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on October 6th, NATGAS actually gained 3.26% on the following trading day.
The contract shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 337 times, NATGAS closed lower 53.12% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.53% with an average market move of -0.88%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are CRUDE gaining 1.73% and SUGAR closing 1.23% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SILVER closing -3.95% lower and GOLD losing -1.7%. Read more