NATGAS closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS ended the week unchanged at 1.850 after gaining $0.021 (1.15%) today. Trading up to $0.033 lower after the open, Nat Gas managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on January 31st, NATGAS actually lost -1.09% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.059 (3.23%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.066. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NATGAS.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 1.869 (R1).
Though the contract is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.869 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 439 times, NATGAS closed lower 53.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.95% with an average market move of -0.56%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are COFFEE gaining 4.23% and CRUDE closing 1.4% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SUGAR closing -1.56% lower and CORN losing -0.39%. Read more