NATGAS closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS ended Thursday at 1.829 losing $0.021 (-1.14%). Trading $0.023 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on February 7th, NATGAS lost -4.38% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Feb 13, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.046 (2.49%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.068. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
After moving higher in the prior session, Natural Gas closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
After trading down to 1.823 earlier during the day, Nat Gas bounced off the key technical support level at 1.826 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. After spiking up to 1.869 during the day, the market found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 1.868.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 646 times, NATGAS closed lower 51.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.80% with an average market move of -0.50%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SUGAR losing -4.03% and CORN closing -0.85% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been COFFEE closing 3.4% higher and SILVER gaining 0.95%. Read more