NATGAS falls to lowest close since August 27th
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, NATGAS finished Wednesday at 2.239 losing $0.050 (-2.18%). Today's close at 2.239 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 27th. Closing below Tuesday's low at 2.266, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.037 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Oct 09, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.077 (3.37%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.084. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NATGAS.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, NATGAS lost -0.43% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2.207 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 2.298 (R1), Nat Gas closed below it after spiking up to 2.306 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2.207 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 438 times, NATGAS closed lower 56.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.90% with an average market move of -0.54%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SUGAR losing -0.57% and CORN closing -0.42% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been WHEAT closing 0.15% higher and CRUDE gaining 0.13%. Read more