NATGAS runs into sellers again around 2.221
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 19, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS ended Monday at 2.202 flat. Trading up to $0.030 lower after the open, Natural Gas managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Aug 19, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been $0.087 (4.02%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.082. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern.
After trading as low as 2.134 during the day, Nat Gas found support at the 20-day moving average at 2.162. After having been unable to move above 2.224 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 2.221. The last time this happened on August 12th, NATGAS actually gained 2.56% on the following trading day.
Though the contract is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 2.267 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 54 times, NATGAS closed lower 51.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.96% with an average market move of -1.13%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are CORN losing -1.6% and SUGAR closing -1.55% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been CRUDE closing 2.29% higher. Read more