NATGAS closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NATGAS ended Tuesday at 2.319 tanking $0.077 (-3.21%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 2.383, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.085 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Jul 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.110 (4.59%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.086. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2.291 (S1). Natural Gas closed back below the 20-day moving average at 2.321 for the first time since July 4th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 30th, NATGAS lost -3.73% on the following trading day.
While Nat Gas is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
As prices are trading close to July's low at 2.217, downside momentum could accelerate should the contract mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Natural Gas. Out of 321 times, NATGAS closed lower 52.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.37% with an average market move of -1.08%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are COFFEE losing -3.38% and CRUDE closing -3.08% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been SILVER closing 1.18% higher. Read more