NATGAS pushes through Wednesday's high
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, NATGAS finished Thursday at 2.850 gaining $0.016 (0.56%). Closing above Wednesday's high at 2.839, the contract confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.018 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.033 (1.16%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.064. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Short Candle showed up on March 5th, NATGAS actually lost -1.52% on the following trading day.
The market managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 2.844 for the first time since March 8th.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 2.895 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 2.752 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 132 times, NATGAS closed lower 56.06% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.82% with an average market move of -0.68%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 1.06% and CORN closing 0.95% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SILVER closing -1.78% lower and GOLD losing -1.05%. Read more